August 24, 2004
Polls of the Day

two via Kos:

Florida, watching the trend lines; late July numbers in parens:
Likely Voters
Bush/Cheney 48 (50) Kerry/Edwards 47 (47)
Registered Voters
Bush/Cheney 46 (49) Kerry/Edwards 46 (45)

Maricopa County, AZ:
Registered Voters
Bush 46 (48) Kerry 41 (36)
This in a county with a 4:3 R:D split, which would mean a 57/43 split on party lines. As the poll firm notes, "since Maricopa County accounts for close to 60 percent of the vote in Arizona, the Bush lead appears to have narrowed to such a degree that the election could be determined in the outlying counties and, particularly in Pima County, which has traditionally favored Democratic candidates."

Then there was also a little-noted poll a few weeks ago where the numbers on the question of "Who do you think will win the election" made a startling change. In June, Rasmussen numbers had people 53/35 believing Bush would win. In July, it had moved to 46/45 Kerry. The war of perception has seemed the hardest to win -- the moral being always be positive. Kerry can become a fait accompli, in the good way.

Posted by dbrown at August 24, 2004 03:20 PM
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